In most CPS jurisdictions, the decision to provide continuing services is not made based on substantiation status alone. Even when a case is substantiated, only about 50% may actually be opened for further services (U.S. DHHS, 1999). The purpose of this study was to investigate differences between substantiated cases that were not opened versus those that were opened and to examine differences in characteristics and patterns of child maltreatment recurrences between these two groups. Methods involved collecting data at an index report for a random sample of substantiated cases of physical abuse or neglect in an urban jurisdiction (1167 families) and following them prospectively over five years. Families that experienced a placement of any child during the follow-up period were removed to compare groups of intact families who received services to those who did not. After removing families with child placements, a final sample of 747 families (252 whose cases were closed in intake and 495 who were provided services) were compared with respect to race, age of children, number of children in the family, type of maltreatment, maternal substance abuse, age of mother at index, and prior substantiated reports.

  Significant bivariate differences were observed between the groups with respect to age of children, number of children in the family, type of maltreatment, maternal substance abuse, age of mother at index, and the existence of prior substantiated reports. However after removing multiple types of maltreatment (n=47) and controlling for other variables in the model, only a two variables significantly predicted case opening status. Families with a previous substantiated report were 22% less likely to be opened for service than families without prior substantiated reports and cases substantiated for neglect were 20% less likely to be opened for service than physical abuse cases. Overall the model successfully predicted 94% of the cases that would be opened but only 13% of the cases that would be closed. Despite these problems with the model, there were significant differences in the pattern of recurrences between these two groups. Only 4% of the families who were closed in Intake were identified with a substantiated report within five years compared to 26% of the families who were provided continuing services. Implications of this research for risk assessment are discussed.

This article reports the findings from two studies that examined the usefulness of the Illinois Child Endangerment Risk Assessment Protocol (CERAP) for predicting short-term maltreatment recurrence. The CERAP is a safety assessment tool designed to guide worker decision-making throughout the life of a case and is completed at several critical case milestones. Two milestones were chosen - within 24 hours after the CPS investigator sees the alleged victim and within five days of case opening (for services to intact families) - for analysis in separate studies. For each study, a case control design was used in which a sample of families who experienced an indicated report of maltreatment recurrence within 60 days of CERAP completion was compared to a sample of families who did not experience maltreatment recurrence. Information from the CERAP was examined, as well as other case characteristics that have been shown to be predictive of recurrence, such as type and severity of abuse, number of previous indicated reports, and number of services provided.

  Results indicated that some predictors of maltreatment recurrence varied depending on the milestone (e.g., point in the life of the case) examined, while others were predictive at both milestones. Age of the youngest child, single-parent household, number of child problems (e.g., physical, emotional, behavioral), type of maltreatment and case disposition (e.g., referred for services versus no service referral) were the predictors of short-term recurrence for investigation cases. Five days after the case had been opened for intact family services (usually post-investigation), the absence of a completed CERAP form and lack of service provision were the milestone predictors. At both milestones, the number of previous indicated reports on the perpetrator and the presence of multiple caretaker problems (e.g., alcohol/drug dependency, domestic violence) were predictive of short-term maltreatment recurrence. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for risk/safety assessment and casework practice in general.

Assessing Risk in Child Maltreatment Volume 22:11-12
Guest Editors, Eileen Gambrill and Aron Shlonsky