TIME
SERIES ANALYSES OF CHILD WELFARE CASELOADS
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Study |
Focus |
Research Design |
Main Findings |
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Geen,
R., Fender, L., Leos-Urbel, J. & Markowitz, T. (2001) |
Influence
of welfare reform on child welfare caseloads & child welfare
experts' expectations regarding the potential impact of welfare reform
on child welfare caseloads in 12 states: |
Quantitative
& Qualitative: (A)
Comparison
between pre-welfare reform (1993-1996)
and post-welfare reform (1996-1998) average annual change in child
welfare caseload data nationally and by state; (B)
Semi-structured interviews and focus groups with child welfare
administrators, researchers, supervisors, legislative representatives
and advocates; phone interviews with a random stratified sample of 125
county child welfare officials from the 12 states plus Mississippi. |
(A)
Child maltreatment allegations and substantiated maltreatment rates
have remained steady or decreased since welfare reform was implemented
(continuing to follow a pattern already in evidence before PRWORA).
(B) Vast majority of interviewed experts expected welfare reform to
have a significant negative impact on child welfare, but thought it
was 'too early to tell' in 1998. |
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WELFARE
‘LEAVER’ STUDIES
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Study |
Focus |
Research Design |
Main Findings |
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Anh,
J., Kraley, S., Fogarty, D. , Lai, F., & Deppman, L. (2000) |
Differences
between rate of child welfare involvement for |
Quantitative: Comparison
of CPS referral & out of home placement rates for 3 cohorts, each
divided into families exiting welfare vs. families remaining on
welfare. Cohorts consisted of all families with open cash assistance
cases between the months of September & December: Cohort I - 1996,
pre-welfare reform, (n=105,166), 14.6% exiting AFDC; Cohort
II - 1997, early implementation of welfare reform, (n=91,247), 17%
exiting welfare; Cohort III - 1998, full implementation of welfare
reform, (n=70,626), 22.7% exiting welfare. |
The
rate of CPS referrals was greater for each successive cohort, i.e TANF
recipients were more likely to experience a CPS referral post-welfare
reform than AFDC recipients prior to welfare reform.
A similar pattern is observed for out of home placements. The
rate of CPS referrals for families exiting welfare was less than for
those remaining on welfare within each cohort in every instance except
one.
ONGOING
EXITING
Cohort I
1.96%
1.24% CAN
Cohort II
2.43
1.73
Cohort III
2.90
2.10
----------------------------------------------------
Cohort I
0.57%
0.59% OHP
Cohort II
0.67
0.59
Cohort III
0.90
0.71 |
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Julnes,
G., & Hatter, A. (2000) |
Differences
in |
Quantitative: Comparison
of rates of substantiated child maltreatment and out of home
placements for families who exited TANF between July 1997 and December
1998 (N=137,330). Rates calculated in the A) second quarter before
exit, B) first quarter before exit, C) quarter of exit, D) first
quarter after exit, & E) second quarter after exit. |
Rates
of substantiated child maltreatment and out of home placement peak in
the quarter just prior to exiting TANF and the quarter families exit
TANF.
QUARTER
CAN
OHP
A
0.9
0.1
B
1.2
0.4
C
1.3
0.8
D
0.8
0.3
E
0.7
0.2 |
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Kauff,
J., Fowler, L., Fraker, T., & Milliner-Waddell, J. (2001) |
Differences
in |
Quantitative: Comparison
of rate CPS involvement (receipt of any CPS service & foster care
placement) during the year prior to exiting TANF and during the year
after exiting TANF for families that exited TANF between July and
August 1999 (N=958). |
Families
exiting welfare were no more likely to receive CPS services (13%) or
have a child placed in foster care (7%) than they were prior to
exiting TANF, at which time 14% were receiving CPS services and 7% had
a child placed in foster care. |
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Maryland
Department of Human Resources & University of |
Differences
in rates of foster care for |
Quantitative: Rates
of foster care placement for children whose families exited TANF
between October 1996 and September 1997 (N=3,467) at 3, 6 and 12
months after exit. |
Few
children entered foster care after their families exited TANF (15
children from 11 families; 0.4%), but 92 children (2.7%) were in
foster care prior to their families exiting TANF. |
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Taylor, L.
(2002) |
Differences
in child welfare involvement for |
Quantitative: (A)
Comparison
of rates of CPS referrals and substantiated
CPS referrals for families who exited TANF January - September 1999
(n=19,176) and families who remained on welfare during the same time
period (n=22,925). Rates were calculated during a 24 month period. (B)
Comparison
of rates of CPS referrals and Substantiated
CPS referrals for families exiting TANF 12 months prior to exit and 12
months following exit. (C)
Predictors
of child welfare involvement. |
There
was very little difference between rates of CPS referrals for families
exiting TANF (22%) and families remaining on TANF (21%). Likewise,
there was very little difference between rates of substantiated CPS
referrals for families exiting TANF (10%) and families remaining on
TANF (9%). Families
exiting welfare had a lower rate of CPS referrals 12 months after exit
(11.25%; 5.0% substantiated) than 12 months prior to exiting
TANF (13.57%; 5.9% substantiated). Families served by CPS tended to be
White, have less education, come from larger families, and have more
experience with cash assistance than families not served by CPS. |
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Tweedie,
J., Reichert, D., & O'Connor, M. (1999) |
Rate
of foster care for |
Quantitative: Rates
of foster care placement for children from an unspecified sample of |
Less
than two percent of children from sample of families exiting TANF were
placed in foster care at three month follow up. |
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USDHHS/ASPE
(2000) |
Rate
of foster care for |
Quantitative: 241
TANF families who reached their 24 month time limit in August 1998
were surveyed 5 months after exiting welfare (76% response rate). |
None
of these families had a child in foster care during 24 month period
receiving TANF and none of these families had a child placed in foster
care in the 5 months following their exit from welfare. |
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USDHHS/ASPE
(2000) |
Rate
of substantiated child abuse and neglect for |
Quantitative: Comparison
of sample of families who exited TANF and a sample of families who
remained on TANF. Size and characteristics of samples unknown. |
Substantiated
child maltreatment reports were not significantly higher among TANF
‘leavers.’ |
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Westra,
K.L., & Routley, J. (2000) |
Differences
in rates of child welfare involvement for |
Quantitative: Comparison
of rates of substantiated child maltreatment and out of home
placements for families exiting TANF between January and March 1998
(N=10,647). Rates calculated in the A) quarter prior to exit, B)
quarter of exit, C) first quarter after exit, D) second quarter after
exit, and E) third quarter after exit. |
There
was no increase in the rate of substantiated child maltreatment or out
of home placement for families exiting TANF.
In fact, these rates declined over time, with the passing of
each successive quarter. Sanctioned
cases were slightly more likely to experience substantiated child
maltreatment and out of home placement, but the differences are very
small. QUARTER
CAN
OHP A
1.8%
0.6% B
0.9
0.5 C
0.8
0.7 D
0.5
0.5 E
N/A
0.3 |
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PRE-WELFARE REFORM FEDERAL WAIVER STUDIES |
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Study |
Focus |
Research Design |
Main Findings |
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Fein, D.,
& Lee, W. (2000) |
Impact
of |
Quantitative: (A)
Times
series analysis of 25,187 children
in single-parent cash assistance cases during first 3 years of ABC; (B)
Time series analysis of 8,867
voluntary welfare leavers and 2,090 involuntary (fully sanctioned)
leavers who exited (C)
Experimental analysis of 3,959 single parent family cases randomly
assigned to ABC or a traditional AFDC control group Oct. '95 to Sept.
'96. |
(A)
Rates of child abuse and neglect rose among families receiving cash
assistance from 1995 to 1997 (2.7%
to 5%) and then declined to earlier levels from 1997 to 1999
(2.4%); (B) Incidents of neglect increased for both voluntary &
involuntary leavers in months preceding welfare exits, peaking for
voluntary leavers in the month of case closure & peaking 3-5
months earlier and higher for involuntary leavers. (C)1.5%
more ABC families with substantiated
neglect cases than traditional AFDC controls (57.7% impact)
during first year of reforms. 1.4%
more ABC families with substantiated maltreatment of any type than
traditional AFDC controls (45.2% impact) in third year of reforms.
Subgroups of ABC families with
ong term welfare use, parent(s) with less than a high school
education, previous child maltreatment reports, and non-Whites were at
heightened risk of neglect. No consistent impact on rates of physical
abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse or foster care placements. |
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Kortenkamp,
K., Geen, R., & Stagner, M. (in press) |
Effects
of welfare and work
activities on likelihood
of foster care reunification for families in 4 |
Quantitative: Cox
proportional hazards modeling of family reunification for 133 foster
children from welfare dependent families (i.e. families received AFDC
or SSI for a minimum of 3 years prior to child’s placement).
The sample consisted of children placed between December 1992
& December1999 & reunification was tracked during this same 7
year period. |
Cases
that were on welfare when the child was placed but subsequently lost
welfare had lower rates of reunification. The total time the case had
spent on welfare, was not
a significant predictor of reunification.
Cases with someone working when the child was placed were
almost 3X more likely to reunify, whereas, whether anyone was working
post-placement did not have a significant effect on the model. |
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OTHER QUANTITATIVE STUDIES |
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Study |
Focus |
Research Design |
Main Findings |
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Courtney,
M., Piliavin, |
Impact
of |
Quantitative: (A)
Comparison of rate of CPS investigations for families on TANF in 1999
(n=1083) & sample of families who began receiving AFDC prior to
welfare reform in 1996 (n=2955); (B)
multivariate hazard analysis of predictors of CPS investigation
following TANF application. |
TANF
families were more likely to have a CPS investigation within one year
of application for welfare than pre-welfare reform AFDC families
(13.8% vs. 10.2%). TANF families were more likely to have a CPS
investigation within two years of application for welfare than
pre-welfare reform AFDC families (21.3% vs. 15.6%).
Parental substance abuse, stress, previous CPS involvement,
number of economic hardships in the past year, age, and number of
resident children positively associated with risk of CPS
investigation. Parental employment negatively associated with CPS
investigation. |
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Derr, M.K.,
& Cooley, V. (In press) |
Impact
of welfare sanctioning on families receiving TANF in |
Quantitative: Comparison
of rates of open CPS cases (due to substantiated child maltreatment or
because family voluntarily sought CPS services) for TANF families in |
Sanctioned
families were no more likely to have an open CPS case within three
years of exiting TANF than the comparison group of nonsanctioned
families, however, sanctioned families had more long-term involvement
with the child welfare system. Sanctioned families were more likely to
be White, headed by a single parent, receiving in home services, have
their CPS case open for 3 months or longer, and to be judged by their
caseworkers as having 'inadequate resources.' |
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Paxson C.
& Waldfogel, J. (2001) |
Effects
of various features of welfare reform, such as strict lifetime welfare
limits, tougher sanctions for noncompliance, work requirements and
family caps on child maltreatment at the state level. Also the impact
of welfare benefit levels, poverty, employment and family structure on
child maltreatment at the state level. |
Quantitative:
Regression
analyses with aggregated state level data from 1990-1998 for the |
Lowering
of benefit levels strongly linked with higher rates of neglect and
foster care entries. Some evidence that strict lifetime limits and
tougher sanctions for noncompliance are related to higher levels of
maltreatment. Family caps appear to lower the rates of maltreatment
but increase the number of children entering foster care. |
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Shook, K.
(1998, 1999) |
What
is the rate of child welfare involvement for |
Quantitative: Logistic
regression to predict child welfare involvement for a random sample of
706 single-parent families living in the |
Prior
CPS involvement, having more than 3 minor children, a child in poor
health, or a newborn, having moved recently, experienced economic
hardship, and/or experienced a welfare grant sanction with no
subsequent employment for 3 months predicted child welfare
involvement. |
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USDHHS/ASPE
(2000) |
Comparison
of child welfare involvement and foster care rates for welfare
families in |
Quantitative: Measured
rates of foster care placement and child welfare referrals for AFDC
families receiving welfare between July 1995 and September 1996 and
TANF families receiving welfare between October 1996 and December 1997
12 months after sample selection. |
Child
welfare involvement and foster care rates not significantly different
between pre-welfare reform group and post-welfare reform group. |
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Wells, K.
& Guo, S. (in
press) |
Impact
of welfare reform on reunification of foster children (within the
first 18 months of placement) with their biological families in |
Quantitative: Comparison
of rates of family reunification and the extent to which family income
has an impact on family reunification of foster children from
single-mother households (N=903) who entered care for the first time
before welfare reform (Oct. '95-Mar. '96) vs. after welfare reform
(Oct. 98 - Mar. '99). Also,
event history analysis of percentage of average monthly total income
due to wages and the partial loss of welfare benefits on
reunification. |
Children
who entered foster care prior to welfare reform returned home at a
speed that was 65.1% faster than children
who entered foster care after welfare reform. Mother's income has a
much greater effect on the speed with which children in the
post-welfare reform group were reunified. Children of mother's with
higher percentages of income from work were slower to be reunified.
Children of mother's who experienced a significant loss of part of the
welfare benefits after placement were slower to be reunified. |
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QUALITATIVE STUDIES |
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Study |
Focus |
Research Design |
Main Findings |
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Frame,
L. & Berrick, J. D. (2001) |
Experiences
of California families 'dually involved' with the TANF and public
child welfare systems, particularly the families' experiences of
parenting in urban poverty & the role of welfare reforms in these
families' child welfare outcomes. |
Qualitative: Longitudinal
(1999-2001), ethnographic study of 10 families from |
Welfare
reforms seemed to have mixed effects on the child welfare outcomes of
these families. For 2 families it had mostly positive outcomes, for 2
families it had mostly negative outcomes, and the impact on the
remaining 2 families was unclear. Positive child welfare outcomes
appear more likely if parents have a base set of marketable skills and
additional economic and social supports. Reforms that reduced the cash
income of families (e.g family caps) that do not have these resources
seem to place children at-risk. |
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