1	The Fading Promise of Welfare Reform to End Child Poverty
2	The Overlap of Welfare, CPS and Foster Care
3	Child welfare and welfare
4	Children new to foster care from welfare families: California 90% Illinois 85% North Carolina 90%
5	Foster Care in Los Angeles 97% of foster care children in Los Angeles come from homes below the poverty line
6	Welfare provides income support for low income mothers. Historic concern that providing welfare made women dependent on it. Welfare reform was meant to encourage single mothers to work so that they wouldn’t need welfare. It was believed that welfare reform would improve the situation of poor children.
7	Welfare Reform Debate
8	Marian Wright Edelman (1995) [The proposed welfare reform] .. is the domestic equivalent of bombing Vietnamese villages in order to save them. It is moral hypocrisy for our nation to slash income, health and nutrition assistance for poor children while leaving untouched hundreds of billions in corporate welfare, giving new tax breaks of over $200 billion for non-needy citizens…
9	Daniel Patrick Moynihan (1995) If in 10 years time we find children sleeping on grates, picked up in the morning frozen, and ask, Why are they here scavenging, awful to themselves, awful to one another …it will have begun on the House floor this spring and the Senate chamber this autumn.”
10	Daniel Patrick Moynihan (1995) described the welfare reform bill as “the most brutal act of social policy since reconstruction” and predicted “those involved will take this disgrace to their graves.”
11	President Clinton campaigned on a promise to Change welfare as we know it. The welfare system was widely viewed as a failed system, the time for reform was ripe: On August 18, 1996 President Clinton signed the welfare reform bill into law.
12	Welfare Reform Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) No longer an entitlement. States provided block grants and greater flexibility. Time limits. Work requirements.
13	Results: What happened? You are working with many of these families. What have you seen? Has there been an improvement in the lives of families that used to be on welfare? Did welfare reform strengthen these families?
14	What has been the impact of welfare reform on children? Are there fewer poor children? Is the situation for poor children improving? How can we answer these questions?
15	Welfare Recipients
16	Greatest declines 1993 2002 Wisconsin 241,000 44,000 Florida 702,000 129,000 Illinois 686,000 154,000 Louisiana 263,000 65,000 Mississippi 121,000 23,000
17	Robert Rector and Patrick Fagan (2001) “Overall poverty, child poverty and black child poverty have all dropped substantially. .. there are 4.2 million fewer people living in poverty today than there were in 1996, according to Census Bureau figures. Some 2.3 million fewer children live in poverty today than in 1996.” “Welfare caseloads have been cut nearly in half and employment of the most disadvantaged single mothers has increased from 50 to 100 percent.”
18	Jay Hein (2001) of the Hudson Institute Indeed, the success of TANF has exceeded even the brightest of reform’s optimists. All the important social indicators are pointing in the right direction: welfare rolls are down; employment is up; teen pregnancy is down; and wages are up.
19	Children receiving welfare 1993 9,382,000 1996 8,671,000 2001 4,055,000
20	Child poverty in the US
21	Child poverty in states with welfare declines
22	Did child poverty decline?
23	Precision of Estimates
24	Children removed from poverty
25	Idaho and Wyoming
26	Idaho and Wyoming 2
27	What about other child welfare indicators? Did out-of-wedlock births decline? Have foster care caseloads declined?
28	Changes in the Percentage of Births to Unmarried Women
29	Foster Care in the United States
30	Children in Foster Care in Wisconsin
31	Children in Foster Care in Florida
32	Did single mothers work more?
33	Employment Status of Single and Married Mothers, 1990 – 2000
34	How can we assess the economic impact of welfare reform? Once a family leaves welfare, then systematic data is no longer collected by the agency. Census data on poverty are limited. Based on samples that have small sub samples of welfare families. These sub samples have levels of confidence that restrict the precision of measurement.
35	Where might we find more reliable data? Who might have data on these families? Child welfare agencies? Child support enforcement agencies? Schools? Police? Hospitals?
36	Food Stamps and Welfare Most people receiving welfare, also receive food stamps. Food stamp offices collect extensive income data on clients to determine eligibility. Independent of welfare eligibility. Children are the largest recipient group.
37	Welfare and Food Stamps What happens with food stamp caseload should mirror what happens with welfare. That is, as welfare caseloads decline, food stamp caseloads should also decline. What happens with children receiving welfare, should be mirrored by children receiving food stamps.
38	Food stamps and welfare parallel each other
39	Income of the Average Food Stamp family.
40	Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Wisconsin
41	Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Florida
42	Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Mississippi
43	Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Louisiana
44	Comparison of Food Stamp and Welfare Recipient Declines in Illinois
45	Why the divergence? Why did the decline in the welfare caseload so exceed the decline in Food Stamp recipients? Both programs address the same problem.
46	Child Recipients of Welfare and Food Stamps
47	Average Monthly Benefit per Person for the Food Stamp Program
48	Parents provided welfare (2001) No parent 1 parent 2 parents Florida 52.8% 47.2% 0 Illinois 30.1 69.3 .6 California 38.3 61.7 0
49	What does the Food Stamp data indicate? The economic situation of most poor children has not improved. This contradicts welfare caseload declines that suggests substantial improvement. Is there other data that would allow for further examination this question?
50	The program specifically targeted to poor children that could help is the Federally Subsidized Free Lunch program.
51	The Federal Free Lunch Program Family income less than 130% of poverty line. Requires parent complete application and supply income information. Applications are checked and audited for eligibility.
52	Children Receiving Welfare and Federally Subsidized Lunch in Florida
53	Children Receiving Welfare and Federally Subsidized Lunch in Wisconsin
54	Children Receiving Welfare and Federally Subsidized Lunch in Mississippi
55	Children Receiving Welfare and Federally Subsidized Lunch in Louisiana
56	Children Receiving Welfare and Federally Subsidized Lunch in Illinois
57	Children Receiving Welfare and Federally Subsidized Lunch in California
58	Child Recipients of Welfare and Free Lunch
59	Critics of welfare reform have expressed concern that removing the entitlement status would give states carte blanche to reduce their welfare caseload. The data examined here suggest that many states may, in fact, have sharply reduced their caseload by simply no longer providing many poor children with welfare regardless of their economic circumstance.
60	"It appears that millions of..." It appears that millions of poor children that in the past would have received welfare no longer receive it. Data from the Food Stamp program indicates the number of poor children who have lost welfare benefits even though their economic situation has not improved is about 2 million. Data from the Free Lunch program indicates the number of poor children who have lost their welfare benefits even though their economic situation has not improved may be as high as 5 million.
61	What has happened to the children who no longer receive welfare but who apparently are still very poor? The data examined here suggest they remain poor. Who are these children?
62	Over representation of Black children
63	Composition of the welfare caseload in Wisconsin
64	Composition of the welfare caseload in Mississippi
65	Composition of the welfare caseload in Louisiana
66	Composition of the welfare caseload in Florida
67	Composition of the welfare caseload in Illinois
68	Color of Children on Welfare
69	The data examined here suggest that the consequence of welfare reform is not the great achievement some have heralded. The story of that achievement, at least for poor children, is a myth.
70	For children in poor families where mom has left welfare and gone to work, the promise of welfare reform may have been realized. But these children are the minority.
71	Millions of poor children who used to receive income protection (welfare) now find themselves without it. Millions of poor children have kept their food stamps and free lunch while losing their welfare benefit. From the perspective of poor children, welfare reform appears to be a substantial net financial loss.
72	childwelfare.com
73	California
74	CalWORKs Caseload
75	AFDC/TANF Foster Care in California
76	California’s Child Population (2000)
77	Foster care in LA
78	Roberts
79	FC by Race
80	Access to UCLA
81	UCLA and Foster Care